stock market analysis

The long-term U.S. 10-Year Note has been dropping while the S&P is over bought

Both the S&P and the standard-bearer U.S. 10-year Note are both paper investments (i.e., as opposed to commodities we can hold in our hands). The divergence between the note and the S&P began recently, in the mid summer of 2016. The drop in the note has been very shallow; it’s easy to see this in […]

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Stocks zoom higher and are even more overvalued

The stock indexes, especially the Nasdaq Composite, roared higher on Friday following news of 3% GDP growth in the 3rd quarter. Bit without inventory growth, the GDP would have been closer to 2.5% Many other details about the underlying weakness here. Before the great recession, 3% GDP growth was a floor, not a ceiling. FANG, Facebook, […]

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Stock-market highs aren’t keeping pace with the lows

The bullish trend line of the S&P 500, DOW and Nasdaq are all intact. The long-term trend, using monthly bars, started in 2009 (after the great recession) has not been broken. On the other hand, the top of the trend channel has been steadily shrinking as highs have not kept pace with lows. As time goes on, the separation between […]

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