Commitment of Traders Chart: U.S. 10-Year Note

'A' a short signal

The commercials are close to a maximum short position (lowest in three years) and there had been a big acceleration of selling starting six weeks earlier (see the green line at the bottom). A short signal occurred on May 21, 2013, after the previous short-term bullish trend was broken. Holding this short position until the trend ended on September 18, 2013, would have yielded a gain of $5,650 per contract.

'B' a long signal

The commercials are at a maximum long position (longest in three years) and there had been a moderate acceleration (about 40% in the green line at the bottom) of buying in the previous six weeks. Shortly after the short-term bearish trend ended, there was a long entry signal on January 21, 2014. Holding this position until the short-term trend ended on June 22, 2014 would have yielded a gain of $2,547 per contract.

U.S. 10-Year Note COT chart
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