'A' a short signal
The commercials are more short then they've been in three years and there was a very high acceleration of their shorting activity over the previous six weeks (over 60% in the green line at the botton). A short signal occurred on March 20, 2012, just as the bullish trend was broken. Holding this short position until the bearish trend ended on August 29, 2012, would have yielded a gain of $27,111 per contract.
'B' a long signal
The commericals are the longest they've been in three years and the acceleration of trading activity is perceptible but at 30% is just under the 40% threshold (at the green line at the bottom). Right after the bearish trade ended, there was a long entry signal on August 29, 2012. Holding this long position until the trend ended on September 19, 2012, would have yielded a gain of $17,454 per contract.